Irish weather is already dramatic enough without a worldwide weather system making things even more dramatic.
But according to the World Meteorological Organisation, El Niño conditions are now developing in the tropical Pacific, with experts warning that it could influence global temperatures and rainfall for months to come.
And while this does sound like something very distant, it could still play a huge part in the kind of summer Ireland gets.
So, what actually is El Niño?
In simple terms, El Niño happens when parts of the Pacific Ocean become warmer than usual. That extra heat, as small as it sounds, can affect weather patterns around the world. Significantly increasing the chance of extreme weather, from heatwaves to heavy rainfall in different parts of the world.
In other words, this is not just about one bad forecast; it could affect the kind of summer we end up receiving.
The World Meteorological Organisation has said there is an 80 per cent chance of El Niño developing between June and August, with a 90 per cent chance that its warming influence could continue until at least November.
UN Secretary General António Guterres did not exactly make it sound casual either, warning that El Niño conditions will “pour fuel on the fire of a warming world”.
Which is not exactly what you want to hear while hoping to plan a few days away in the sun.
The last El Niño took place in 2023/2024 and was one of the strongest on record, contributing to the record global temperatures seen in 2024. Now, experts say that the latest events could bring similar record-breaking heat and cause climate-related disruptions across the world.
But what does this mean for Ireland?
Unfortunately, it is not very straightforward. El Niño does not affect every country in the same way. And it’s strongest impact is usually most obvious in South America, parts of Asia and Africa, where it can be directly linked to drought, flooding and serious weather fluctuations.
Ireland is unlikely to see the most extreme effects directly, but that does not mean we are completely out of the conversation.
Met Éireann’s seasonal outlook for the summer months points towards above-average temperatures in Ireland, with rainfall likely to fall below average for this period. Suggesting that a warmer and drier summer could be on the cards.
Of course, this is Ireland though, so don’t put your winter clothes in the attic just yet. El Niño does not suddenly mean endless sunshine, but could make warmer and more unusual weather patterns more likely.
Ireland already saw record-high temperatures in May this year, with Shannon Airport provisionally recording over 30 degrees Celsius. Which does sound amazing, but for most of us, the practical side of things is probably more important. Warmer weather is great during the day, until you are trying to sleep in a room without air conditioning or sitting at the back of a sweaty bus.
But it does mean it is worth being a little more prepared if temperatures do rise again. Meaning keeping water with you, using SPF consistently and not walking pets during the hottest times of the day.
It also means remembering that Irish homes are often great at holding heat in, which becomes very obvious the second we get more than three warm days in a row.
The warning from the WMO is not just about Ireland getting a warm few weeks, though. It is part of a much bigger climate picture, with scientists warning that El Niño can intensify the effects of global heating.
So while it is easy to frame it as a “will Ireland finally get a proper summer?” story, the reality is much bigger than that.
For Ireland, it may mean a warmer and possibly drier few months. For other parts of the world, the impacts could be far more serious.
Either way, it is probably worth keeping an eye on upcoming forecast as we enter the summer months, stocking up on sunscreen and finally getting that patio umbrella for the back garden.
Because if Irish summer does decide to show up properly this year, it sounds like it could arrive with a bit of force.
Words by Andrew Connolly